‘Over vijftien jaar bezitten we geen auto meer’

15 mei 2017Over vijftien jaar bezitten we geen auto meer, maar zijn we overgestapt op ‘transport-as-a-service’ met uitsluitend zelfrijdende elektrische auto’s. De denktank RethinkX voorspelt in een nieuw rapport dat de grote meerderheid van autorijders rond 2030 kiest voor ‘on-demand, electric, autonomous vehicles’ – het einde van de auto zoals we die nu kennen.

De studie richt zich vooral op de Verenigde Staten, maar de conclusies kunnen ook doorgetrokken kunnen worden naar andere delen van de wereld.

Uit het persbericht van RethinkX

‘(….) A historic revolution in transportation will end over 100 years of individual vehicle ownership and reshape the world’s energy economy in the process. That’s according to a groundbreaking new research report, Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries.

Assuming existing technologies and using well-established cost curves, the report, produced by RethinkX, an independent research group, provides a detailed analysis of data, market, consumer and regulatory dynamics. It finds that within 10 years of the regulatory approval of driverless vehicles:

  • 95 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand Autonomous Electric Vehicles (A-EVs) owned by companies providing Transport as a Service (TaaS).
  • A-EVs engaged in TaaS will make up 60 percent of U.S vehicle stock.
  • As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

“We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” said co-author Tony Seba, RethinkX co-founder, author of “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation,” and instructor at Stanford Continuing Studies. “But there is nothing magical about it. This is driven by the economics.”

Rethinking Transportation details how the approval of autonomous vehicles will unleash a market grab by existing and new ride-share companies, who will abandon internal combustion engines (ICE) for A-EVs for purely cost reasons. As a result:

  • Using TaaS will be four to 10 times cheaper per mile than buying a new car, and two to four times cheaper than operating an existing paid-off vehicle, by 2021.
  • The cost of TaaS will be driven down by several factors, including utilization rates that are 10 times higher; electric vehicle lifetimes exceeding 500,000 miles; and far lower maintenance, energy, finance and insurance costs.
  • The average American household will save $5,600 per year by giving up its gas-powered car and traveling by autonomous, electric TaaS vehicles.
  • These cost savings will drive both potential new car buyers and existing owners to abandon vehicle ownership and move to TaaS.
  • There is a clear path to free transportation under TaaS, which would accelerate the disruption and bring even more savings to American families and a bigger boost to the economy.
  • TaaS vehicles will provide universal, affordable point-to-point transportation to those left behind by the current private and public transport system, including the disabled, the young, the elderly, populations living on fixed incomes or highly variable (gig economy) incomes, and the poor.

“While these projections may seem radical because they differ from mainstream and incumbent industry projections, they are really quite conservative because they are based on assumptions that in some cases have already been bested by new technologies and plummeting prices,” said Bryan Hansel, CEO of Chanje Energy (formerly Nohm Technologies).

Uit een bericht van IEEE.org
‘(…) And the U.S.-centered view — if it doesn’t happen here, it doesn’t happen anywhere — is a little misguided. A lot of these technologies are global. The Chinese are working on self-driving, and Europe is working on self-driving. (…) auto dealers, car repair shops, taxicabs, buses, car insurance, filling stations, not to mention oil companies and car makers, will all be hit by a shockwave as the rapid adoption of self-driving electric vehicles drains these present-day industries of income. (…)’

Uit een bericht van Energy Post
‘(…) Lead consultant and co-author is Tony Seba, who specialises in disruptive technologies. His early forecasts for the enormous uptake of solar where considered crazy, but were proved right, and he has since said that new technologies will make coal, oil and gas all but redundant by 2030).  (…) Like his predictions on the rise of solar, and the sudden decline of fossil fuels, Seba’s calculations are driven by simple economics. Within few years, the upfront costs of AEVs will match those of petrol cars. But the depreciation costs will be minimal, because the cars, owned by fleets, will “last a lifetime”. Maintenance costs will be significantly lower – thanks to 20 moving parts in the powertrain compared to 2,000 for petrol cars – and the miles travelled significantly higher; they will be doing 1.6 million km by 2030, more than five times more than petrol cars. (…)’

 

Bronnen
RethinkX, 4 mei 2017: New report: Due to major transportation disruption, 95% of U.S. car miles will be traveled in self-driving, electric, shared vehicles by 2030
RethinkX, rapport: Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030 – The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries (pdf, 77 pag. -registratie vereist)
IEEE Spectrum, 4 mei 2017: RethinkX: Self-Driving Electric Cars Will Dominate Roads by 2030
Energy Post, 12 mei 2017: Death spiral for cars. By 2030, you probably won’t own one


Website RethinkX
Illustratie: Waymo (voorheen Google)



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