Chatham House: ‘Strengere regulering olie- en gassector onvermijdelijk’

18 augustus 2016Chatham House waarschuwt dat strengere mondiale regulering van de olie- en gassector onvermijdelijk is om de doelen van het klimaatakkoord te halen. De denktank voor internationale vraagstukken roept op tot duidelijk beleid, om te voorkomen dat de fossiele sector risicovolle investeringen doet om te voldoen aan een krimpende vraag. 

Met de huidige toezeggingen voor CO2-reductie van de verschillende landen (de INDC’s), warmt de aarde meer op dan de twee graden die in het klimaatakkoord van Parijs als grens werd gesteld. Daarom is het onvermijdelijk dat landen de olie- en gassector strengere regels gaan opleggen in de eerstvolgende evaluatie van het klimaatakkoord. Dat stelt de Chatham House in een paper met de titel ‘Paris Mismatches: The Impact of the COP21 Climate Change Negotiations on the Oil and Gas Industries’.

De invloed van de strengere regulering op de oliesector is nog redelijk voorspelbaar, aldus de Chatham House. Zolang er geen betere batterij-technologie is, zal de transportsector nog zwaar leunen op olieproducten. De vooruitzichten voor gas zijn een stuk verontrustender en minder goed voorspelbaar, aldus het artikel.

Uit een bericht van Natural Gas World
‘(…) The report speaks of a “mismatch is between the much-vaunted golden era of gas [The IEA’s 2011 World Energy Outlook special report was entitled:  Are we entering a golden age of gas?’ while BP’s latest Energy Outlook to 2035 still showed gas as the fastest fossil-fuel, averaging 1.8% growth globally out to 2035] as a cleaner transitional fuel — and the likely future” where major investments in LNG and long-distance gas pipelines are difficult to justify at a time of political and economic flux. Expanding markets for gas in regions that already have gas may be a more practicable backstop option, it nervously suggests.

Uit een bericht van Energy Live News
‘(…) The think tank calls for “credible” policies otherwise oil and gas companies may make risky investments to meet unsustainable demand.
It added: “They are needed to send a strong signal to those who consume and produce carbon-based fuels so that their investment plans can be amended to reflect the shape of a lower carbon economy.” (…)’

Een samenvatting van de conclusies van het artikel van de Chatham House
‘(…) This paper analyses the impact of international climate action agreed at the COP21 meeting in Paris in December 2015 on the oil and gas sector, concluding that:

  • Given the gap between the current round of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and the target of limiting global warming to below 2°C, additional and more stringent measures are likely to be imposed on fossil fuels in future. As a result, the impact of regulation on the oil and gas sector is set to intensify.
  • Credible policies are needed to send a strong signal to those who consume and produce carbon-based fuels so that their investment plans can be amended to reflect the shape of a lower carbon economy. Without credible policies oil and gas companies may make risky investments to meet unsustainable demand.
  • The impact of the INDCs on oil demand will be negative, but relatively predictable, at least until batteries become economically available at scale. A realistic assessment of demand growth is crucial and managements must avoid overinvestment in potentially unnecessary projects.
  • For natural gas the outlook is much more unsettling and unpredictable. The markets available will be the uncertain residual of policies to promote renewables and government attitudes to nuclear energy and use of cheap coal.
  • Investors will be keen to see capital deployed appropriately and will pressure managements to be realistic about viable investments over the next decades. Some will be deterred by uncertainty and concern about the future of fossil fuels. (…)’

Bronnen
Chatham House, nieuwsbericht, 11 augustus 2016: Paris Mismatches: The Impact of the COP21 Climate Change Negotiations on the Oil and Gas Industries
Chatham House, artikel, augustus 2016: Paris Mismatches: The Impact of the COP21 Climate Change Negotiations on the Oil and Gas Industries
Natural Gas World, 13 augustus 2016: Unsettling outlook for gas: Chatham House
Energy Live News, 16 augustus 2016: Paris Agreement will ‘intensify oil and gas sector regulation’

Foto: Chatham House

Auteur: Redactie

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