‘Duurzame energie drukt over 25 jaar de Nederlandse gasprijs’
23 mei 2015 – Hernieuwbare energie zal rond 2040 zo’n groot aandeel hebben in de energiemix, dat het de gasprijs zal bepalen. Dat schrijven Hendrik Steringa, energietransitie-onderzoeker en schrijver en Hans van Cleef, Senior Energy Economist bij ABN AMRO.
Dat is eerder dan tot nu toe verwacht, schrijven de onderzoekers.
Uit het artikel van Steringa en Van Cleef
‘(…) The gas market, unlike the oil market, remains strongly regional and in Europe, where the shale gas revolution has yet to get off the ground, shale gas has so far only had a limited impact on the gas price. Europe must therefore rely mainly on energy saving and renewable energy to influence the demand for, and price of, gas. With renewable energy becoming increasingly prominent in the European energy and climate policy, the question on the table is: can renewable energy one day determine the gas price? And, if so, when? (…)
Which scenario can influence the gas price?
To influence the gas price, gas must be seen as a back-up energy source for renewable energy. As long as the consumption of renewables is not significantly greater than that of gas, the price of gas will be barely influenced by renewables. The first scenario (40% renewable, but much smaller for the total energy mix – see figure 3) is thus eliminated, which leaves scenarios two (60% renewable/20% gas/coal), three (80% renewable/10% gas/coal) and four (100% renewable). Before the gas price can be determined by renewables within these scenarios, several more conditions must be satisfied:
- The consumption of gas must be variable, i.e. gas must be used flexibly as a back-up for renewables. Only then will the spot prices be influenced and not – as is currently indirectly the case – the future price trend;
- Gas must be cheaper than other fossil fuels, such as coal and oil;
- The effect will be significantly greater if the share of renewable energy and energy saving is substantial, also outside the electricity sector;
- To achieve this, the price of CO2 emission rights must increase.
If these conditions are met, you could arrive at a situation in scenarios two, three and four where the spot prices of gas are determined by renewable energy. (…)
Conclusion: renewable energy can determine the gas price; possibly earlier than many think
As noted earlier in this article, looking at the energy system in a broad sense (transport, heating and electricity), the share of renewable energy is still limited. But the share of renewables used for power generation is rising strongly, and a 100% scenario in 2050 for the electricity sector is by no means improbable. However, looking at the total energy mix, i.e. including transport and heating, gas seems set to continue playing a considerably more important role. For this reason, given the technologies of today, the realisation of a 100% renewable energy mix for all sectors before 2050 is less likely.
We have seen that the question as to whether renewable energy can determine the price of gas can, under certain conditions, be answered with ‘yes’. However, before we reach this point, substantial technological innovation is required and the use of renewables within transport and heating must really take off. More stringent regulations to increase CO2emission prices under the Emission Trading Scheme can give an additional boost. If these conditions are met, renewable energy can start influencing the gas price between 2040 and 2050. That is in 25 years’ time, which is closer than many think. (…)’
ABN AMRO, 22 mei 2015: One day solar energy will determine the gas price
De Telegraaf, 22 mei 2015: Zon- en windenergie gaan energierekening sneller drukken
Windenergie Nieuws, 22 mei 2015: Zonne- & windenergie gaat de energierekening fors drukken
Ensoc, 22 mei 2015: ‘Duurzame energie beïnvloedt gasprijs over 25 jaar’