Effects of Removing Restrictions on U.S. Crude Oil Exports

This report examines the implications of removing current restrictions on U.S. crude oil exports for the price of domestic and global marker crude oil streams, gasoline prices, domestic crude oil production, domestic refining activity, and trade in crude oil and petroleum products.
U.S. oil production has grown rapidly in recent years. Data reflecting combined U.S. production of crude oil and lease condensate show a rise from 5.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 8.7 million b/d in 2014. EIA’s August 2015 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts U.S. crude oil production of 9.4 million b/d in 2015 and 9.0 million b/d in 2016, with the decrease in production between 2015 and 2016 reflecting recent and forecast changes in drilling activity following the sharp decline in oil prices since mid-2014. AEO2015 projects domestic production growth beyond 2016, although the pace and duration remain uncertain. ….