‘Internationaal Energieagentschap onderschat opkomst groene energie’

12 november 2015 – Het Internationaal Energieagentschap (IEA) was deze week in de World Energy Outlook 2015 positief over de opkomst van duurzame energie. Maar mogelijk is de werkelijkheid nog zonniger. IEA lijkt hernieuwbare energie structureel te onderschatten.

Informatie en analyses over energie van het Internationaal Energieagentschap (IEA) wordt altijd breed geaccepteerd. Maar het agentschap onderschat structureel de opkomst van hernieuwbare energie, zo stellen de Energy Watch Group and Lappeenranta University of Technology na onderzoek van de voorspellingen van IEA.

Uit een bericht van Energy Watch Group
‘(…) The new study by Energy Watch Group and Lappeenranta University of Technology (…) comes to the conclusion that the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual reports World Energy Outlook (WEO) between 1994 and 2014 have been publishing misleading projections on solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy. The WEO has significant impact on both political and economic decisions of world governments regarding energy. (…)

The key findings of the study include:

• The WEO 2010 projections for solar PV capacity for the year 2024 (180 GW) have been achieved in January 2015 and exceeded threefold the WEO projections for 2015.
• Real wind capacity in 2010 exceeded 260% and 104% the WEO 2002 and 2004 projections respectively for this year. WEO projections for wind energy from 2002 for 2030 had been achieved 20 years earlier, in 2010.
• Independent analysts have been more correct in their projections of the successful expansion of renewable energy than the WEO. Only forecasts of the conventional energy industry, including BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil, were similarly low as IEA projections.
• WEO projections overestimate the potential of coal industry in the last years and do not reflect the latest trend of divestment of finance from the coal industry in the last years as well as China’s starting coal exit and increasing investment in renewables.
• WEO from 2000 to 2006 highly overestimated oil-based electricity.
• Despite a decline of nuclear energy in the last 10 years, WEO still projects an annual expansion of about 10 GW nuclear in the next decade. Given a few commissioned and financed nuclear projects and the 100-200% overruns over the planning costs in Europe and delays, WEO projections appear highly overestimated. (…)’

In onderstaande grafiek met de opkomst van hernieuwbare energie (waterkracht is niet meegenomen) is te zien dat de voorspelling van de World Energy Outlook wel steeds dichterbij de werkelijkheid komt. Het probleem is dat de IEA uitgaat van lineaire groei, terwijl de groei volgens de Energy Watch Group in werkelijkheid exponentieel is, dus steeds steiler omhoog gaat.

De World Energy Outlook wordt goedgekeurd door regeringen die soms grote belangen hebben in fossiele energie, stelt Energy Watch Group. ‘Therefore, the Energy Watch Group calls the scientific community and civil society to examine closer political and business dependencies within IEA.’

Energy Post nuanceert de suggestie van Energy Watch Group dat IEA de voorspellingen laat beïnvloeden door fossiele belangen. De IEA-voorspellingen kunnen leiden tot hogere investeringen in fossiele energie, maar dat is niet bewezen. Sterker nog, het kan overheden ook motiveren juist meer te investeren in hernieuwbare energie. Verder spoort de IEA beleidsmakers al jaren aan werk te maken van klimaatverandering, stelt Karel Beckman in Energy Post.

Uit een bericht in the Guardian
‘(…) Birol [directeur IEA] said the IEA’s previous forecasts for hydropower and wind power had been correct and that solar projections were based on the government support existing at the time. “If the policies change, the numbers will change as well,” he said. “They may need to be revised [upwards] next year. I hope so.” (…)’

Bronnen
De Correspondent, 11 november 2015: De aarde warmt gevaarlijk snel op. Maar de opmars van groen is niet te stuiten
The Guardian, 10 november 2015: Renewable energy made up half of world’s new power plants in 2014: IEA
Vox, 12 oktober 2015: The International Energy Agency consistently underestimates wind and solar power. Why?
Energy Post, 6 oktober 2015: Renewables: does the IEA underestimate them?
Energy Watch Group, 22 september 2015: New EWG study: International Energy Agency holds back global energy transition
Onderzoek Energy Watch Group: The projections for the future and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook for solar PV and other renewable energy technologies