‘Kosten aanpak klimaatverandering hoger dan verwacht’

5 december 2014 – De kosten voor aanpassing aan klimaatverandering in ontwikkelingslanden zijn veel hoger dan verwacht, zo voorspelt het United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Zelfs als de CO2-uitstoot zoveel vermindert dat de aarde deze eeuw met maximaal 2 procent opwarmt.

Het UNEP schreef dat in haar Adaptation Gap Report. Het rapport, dat uitkomt rond de klimaattop in Lima, geeft een overzicht van de financiële, technologische en kennisgaten die nog moeten worden gedicht voor de wereld zich succesvol kan aanpassen aan de klimaatverandering.

Ook al is er 26 miljard dollar beschikbaar, zonder nieuwe fondsen is er na 2020 niet genoeg geld voor de aanpassing aan klimaatverandering in ontwikkelingslanden.

Uit een bericht van UNEP
‘(…) the cost of adapting to climate change in developing countries is likely to reach two to three times the previous estimates of $70-100 billion per year by 2050 (…)’

De UNEP komt tot deze hogere kosten door andere cijfers en analyses te gebruiken.

‘ (…) The Adaptation Gap Report, produced in collaboration with 19 leading institutions and research centres, expands upon these earlier estimates by including new national and sector studies in its analyses and modelling. The report finds that the earlier figures are likely to be a significant underestimate. For example, one newer study found that the annual average adaptation costs for South Asia alone were estimated at up to $40 billion.

While the Adaptation Gap Report finds that the likely increase in adaptation costs with emissions reductions in place is two to three times higher, it points to the possibility of even greater expense. Extending the analysis to all developing countries indicates a chance that adaptation costs could climb as high as $150 billion by 2025/2030 and $250-500 billion per year by 2050.

These costs are based on the assumption that further wide-ranging action is taken to cut emissions to the level required to meet the target of limiting global temperature rise this century to 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. (…)’

UNEP-directeur Achim Steiner roept de wereldleiders in Lima op om het ook te hebben over adaptatie aan klimaatverandering te hebben, en over de kosten daarvan.

‘(…) Without further action on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, as outlined in UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2014, the cost of adaptation will soar even further as wider and more-expensive action is needed to protect communities from the intensifying impacts of climate change such as drought, floods and rising sea levels.

“As world leaders meet in Lima to take the critical next step in realizing a global agreement on climate change, this report underlines the importance of including comprehensive adaptation plans in the agreement,” said Achim Steiner, Executive Director of UNEP and Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations.

“The impacts of climate change are already beginning to be factored into the budgets of national and local authorities. The escalating cost implications on communities, cities, business, taxpayers and national budgets merit closer attention as they translate into real economic consequences,” he added. (…)’

Bron
UNEP, 5 december 2014: Even with emissions cuts, climate change adaptation costs likely to Hit 2-3 Times Current Estimates of $70-100 Billion per Year

Rapport
UNEP, november 2014: The adaptation gap report  (pdf, 70 pagina’s)