Pessimist Michael Kelly: ‘Forse CO2-reductie gaat zeker niet lukken’

29 mei 2016De Cambridge-hoogleraar Michael Kelly is buitengewoon pessimistisch over de mogelijkheden van een forse CO2-reductie. Hij noemt het Akkoord van Parijs  ‘pure waanzin’. ‘Het klimaat is niet te beschermen.’

Michael Kelly is hoogleraar in de nanotechnologie en verbonden aan de Universiteit van Cambridge. Hij schreef in ‘MRS Energy & Sustainability’ een bijdrage waarin hij het Klimaatakkoord van Parijs ‘total madness’ noemt.

Uit een bericht van Cambridge University
‘(…) As part of an open discussion on the critical issue of energy, sustainability and climate change, MRS Energy & Sustainability–A Review Journal (MRS E&S) has published a paper in which Cambridge engineering professor M.J. Kelly argues that it is time to review the current efforts to reduce carbon emissions, some of which “represent total madness.” This paper is one of a series of articles in MRS E&S that, with varying opinions, address this controversial topic.
In his peer-reviewed article, Lessons from technology development for energy and sustainability, Kelly considers the lessons from global decarbonization projects, and concludes that all combined actions to reduce carbon emissions so far will not achieve a serious reduction. In some cases, these efforts will actually make matters worse.
Central to his thesis, which is supported by examples, is that rapid decarbonization will simply not be possible without a significant reduction in standards of living. The growing call to decarbonize the global economy by 80% by 2050 could only foreseeably happen alongside large parts of the population plunging into poverty, destitution or starvation, as low-carbon energy sources do not produce enough energy to sustain society. According to Kelly, “It is clear to me that every further step along the current pathway of deploying first-generation renewable energy is locking in immature and uneconomic systems at net loss to the world standard of living.”

As Kelly notes, it has been 40 years since the modern renewable energy developments began, and yet the fraction of world energy supplied by renewables (wind, solar and cultivated biomass sources combined) has hardly increased. The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 reports 3% for wind, solar and cultivated biomass sources combined, for 2014.
Kelly’s argument is that weaning off fossil fuels will take much longer than postulated by some experts.  He suggests that a more viable option is to employ another generation of fossil fuels–during which economic conditions of humankind can be improved and alternate solutions can be explored and developed. As the global population is set to rise from 7 billion to 9 billion in 2050, an altogether more sophisticated debate is needed on appropriate actions that considers the full range of threats to humanity, and carefully weighs the upsides and downsides both of taking action–and refraining from it. (…)’

Bronnen
Cambridge University, 24 mei 2016: Cambridge professor says much of the effort to combat global warming is actually making it worse
Faqt, 26 mei 2016: ‘Klimaat valt niet te beschermen’ (Nederlandse samenvatting van beriocht van Cambridge University)
MRS Energy & Sustainability, 2016, Artikel Kelly: Lessons from technology development for energy and sustainability (13 pag.)
Foto Kelly: Examiner
Luchtfoto: FluxEnergie/© Paul Tolenaar

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