De nu actieve gas- en oliebronnen leiden al tot meer dan 1,5 graad opwarming

27 september 2016 – De actieve gas- en oliebronnen zullen, zelfs zonder steenkoolwinning, de wereld al boven de grens van 1,5 graad opwarming brengen. En mét steenkool brengen de ontwikkelde bronnen en mijnen ons zeker boven de 2 graden. Dat meldt NewScientist. ‘No new fossil fuel infrastructure should be built.’

NewScientist bericht over een rapport van Oil Change International, een Amerikaanse denktank van tegenstanders van fossiele brandstoffen.
Uit het bericht van NewScientist
‘(…) The study finds that “potential carbon emissions from developed reserves – where the wells are already drilled, the pits dug, and the pipelines, processing facilities, railways and export terminals constructed – will take us just beyond the Paris Agreement’s two degrees Celsius warming limit”.
Developed reserves of oil and gas alone, even if coal were phased out immediately, would threaten the agreement’s preferred lower target of 1.5 °C, says the study from Oil Change International, a US think tank that opposes fossil fuels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says capping warming at 2 °C requires total post-2015 emissions to be kept below 843 billion tonnes of CO2 – or 22 years of emissions at current rates.
But the report’s author, Greg Muttitt, used industry data to calculate that developed reserves of coal, oil and gas will deliver emissions of 941 billion tonnes.
This means countries such as the UK, whose prime minister told the UN assembly [last] week that her government would ratify the Paris Agreement, should stop all further oil and gas exploration, including fracking.
“There is no room in the atmosphere. No new fossil fuel infrastructure should be built,” says Muttitt. (…)’

Uit een bericht van Oil Change International
‘(…) Key Findings:

• The potential carbon emissions from the oil, gas, and coal in the world’s currently operating fields and mines would take us beyond 2°C of warming.
• The reserves in currently operating oil and gas fields alone, even with no coal, would take the world beyond 1.5°C.
• With the necessary decline in production over the coming decades to meet climate goals, clean energy can be scaled up at a corresponding pace, expanding the total number of energy jobs.

Key Recommendations:

• No new fossil fuel extraction or transportation infrastructure should be built, and governments should grant no new permits for them.
• Some fields and mines – primarily in rich countries – should be closed before fully exploiting their resources, and financial support should be provided for non-carbon development in poorer countries.
• This does not mean stopping using all fossil fuels overnight. Governments and companies should conduct a managed decline of the fossil fuel industry and ensure a just transition for the workers and communities that depend on it. (…)’

Bronnen
NewScientist, 22 september 2016: The oil and gas we have already tapped will take us past 1.5 °C
Oil Change International, 22 september 2016: The Sky’s Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production
Oil Change Internationl, rapport, 22 september 2016: The Sky’s Limit (pdf, 58 pag.)
Website Oil Change International
Foto: Statoil/Harald Pettersen