Azerbaijan’s gas supply squeeze and the consequences for the Southern Corridor

This paper addresses the gas supply squeeze that has arisen in Azerbaijan. It covers the increase in demand in the domestic market, and Georgia and Turkey, and the unforeseen decline in the legacy state-operated fields, that have combined to produce the problem. It discusses the extent to which the shortage of supply may continue into the 2020s, and reviews previous estimates of Azerbaijan’s output in that decade. In any producing province, predicting the decline rate in post-plateau field production is prone to error – and in the case of Azerbaijan, the reduction in funds available for sustaining investment has exacerbated this issue. ….